Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gavin Floyd will try to keep the good times rolling when he takes the mound this afternoon for the Chicago White Sox in the second meeting of a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium.
Floyd has won his last two starts for the White Sox, and is coming off an outstanding performance against Cleveland. In the 6-3 victory over the Tribe, Floyd tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings, scattering five hits, while also striking out five batters
Despite the recent run however, the right-hander has been inconsistent on the mound this year, posting a 6-5 ledger with a 4.12 earned run average.
Earlier this season Floyd was rocked by the Royals, surrendering six runs on six hits in five innings. In seven career appearances against KC, Floyd has struggled, posting a 1-4 mark with a terrible 4.35 earned run average.
After a slow start, Luke Hochevar will try to continue his solid pitching when he takes the mound for KC this afternoon. Hochevar opened the year with an 0-2 mark, but since then the right-hander has pushed his season ledger to 3-3 and has brought his earned run average down to 4.96.
Pitching against Chicago has been a nightmare for the young hurler however, as Hochevar has gone 0-2 in four outings against the Pale Hose, allowing 11 runs in 22 innings of work.
Last night, John Danks was dominant in 7 1/3 shutout innings, as the red-hot White Sox extended their season-best winning streak to seven games with a 5-0 blanking of the Royals.
Danks (7-6) has been one of the spark plugs for Chicago, going at least seven innings while allowing three or less runs in five consecutive starts. The southpaw allowed just five hits with five strikeouts and no walks to move above .500 for the first time since the beginning of May, when he was 2-1.
A. J. Pierzynski hit a solo homer in a 3-for-4 effort, while Scott Podsednik went 3-for-4 with two runs scored for the White Sox, who have won 13 of their last 16 road contests.
David DeJesus and Luis Hernandez each had two of the Royals' six hits, as KC dropped its fourth straight game. Zack Greinke (10-4) failed to move out of the first-place tie for most wins in the AL after yielding four runs -- two earned -- on nine hits with a walk and six strikeouts in six innings.
Greinke's earned run average now stands at a season-worst 2.00.
"It happens to me every year. I pitch the best in the beginning (of the season), struggle in the middle and usually finish strong, too," Greinke said. "I don't know why, but that happens, it seems, every year."
Pierzynski put the White Sox on the board in the second, blasting a one-out solo shot to right.
"I have nothing but the utmost respect for Zack and what he's been able to do, especially this year," Pierzynski said of his homer. "He's the best pitcher I've seen this year. The bottom line is you've got to get a good pitch off of him."
Chicago has won five of seven matchups with the Royals held in Kansas City so far this season and swept a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium from May 29-31. Additionally, the White Sox enter this evening's tilt having won 13 of their last 16 overall road games.
<< Braves send Hanson to hill against Washington
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie phenom Tommy Hanson looks for a fifth straight
victory today when the Atlanta Braves visit our nation's capital for a holiday
afternoon game with the host Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
Hanson, who'll tur
<< Reds, Owings seek to slow down Pujols
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Brad Thompson starts against the Cincinnati
Reds for the second time this season today when the St. Louis Cardinals head
to Great American Ball Park for the middle test of a three-game series with
their Nationa
<< With Manny return behind them, LA gets back to business in San Diego
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the return of Manny Ramirez now behind them, the Los
Angeles Dodgers can get back to business, as they continue their three-game
series with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.
Ramirez returned from a 50-game suspensi
<< BoSox try to bounce back against Mariners
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox will try to return to the win column
when they host the Seattle Mariners this afternoon at Fenway Park.
Boston's starter this afternoon will be Brad Penny, who has one win in his
last six starts. The la
Echenique birdies the last for the lead in Paris >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Overnight leader Rafa Echenique birdied the
last hole Saturday to hold on to his spot atop the leaderboard after the third
round of the Open de France.
Echenique shot a one-under 70 and finished 54 holes at
Nestor/Zimonjic beat Bryans for Wimbledon doubles crown >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Canadian Daniel Nestor and Serbian Nenad
Zimonjic repeated as men's doubles champions at Wimbledon Saturday, beating
the top-seeded American twin Bryan brothers, Bob and Mike, in four sets.
Nestor and
D'Backs activate Petit off DL for Saturday start >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks have activated
right-hander Yusmeiro Petit from the 15-day disabled list to start Saturday's
game versus Colorado.
Petit has been shelved since May 9 with a right shoulde
New jockey for Mine That Bird on the horizon >>
Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chip Woolley, trainer of Kentucky Derby
winner Mine That Bird, indicated Saturday that an announcement on a new rider
for the three-year-old could come as soon as Sunday morning. Earlier in the
week Ca
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting